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Liberal spills and by-elections

Sussan Ley to leave parliament and spark a by-election in Farrer.

Sussan Ley has been deposed as federal leader, lasting a few weeks longer in the top job than Alexander Downer did in 1994-95, but falling a couple of weeks short of Brendan Nelson's tenure after the defeat of the Howard government in 2007.

Her leadership is the second shortest of any federal Liberal leader.

The spill passed 33-17, with one informal vote (if we're taking stabs at what the informal voter wrote on my ballot, I'll guess "For Brendan Nelson"). The vote for leader then went Angus Taylor's way 34-17.

Angus Taylor has declared that his party needs to change, but hasn't yet put a lot of detail on the table (at the time of writing he is yet to speak publicly but that will change shortly). Do the Liberals start talking about issues like immigration much more, in an attempt to cauterise the wound that's seeing them rapidly lose support to One Nation, even if that risks alienating city voters?

That's, ultimately, the dilemma: find a way to win back seats in the cities, while also not moving backwards in regional Australia. It's quite the pickle! I should have a few more thoughts on the position the Opposition is in on the ABC's 7.30 program tonight.

The Coalition agreement will need to be revisited with a new leader. Will either side look to make changes to the one that was agreed between Ley and David Littleproud just a couple of weeks ago?

And Angus Taylor will very quickly face an electoral test, with Sussan Ley announcing she will leave parliament. She's been the member for Farrer since 2001, defeating a Nationals candidate in that election by 206 votes. That will presumably contested by both the Nationals and Liberal Party and be another test of the relationship between the parties.

Further reading:

Nepean by-election

The Liberals' former deputy leader Sam Groth has pulled his retirement forward, and so voters on the Mornington Peninsula are being sent to the polls, less than nine months before the Victorian state election, to choose a new member for Nepean.

My guide for ABC News has now been published:

At the time of writing, Sam Groth hasn't yet resigned from parliament (he said he would do so this week).

The Speaker has to issue the writ for the by-election within a month of Groth's resignation, with election day a minimum of 25 days later, meaning the earliest the by-election could be held is 14 March. If the Speaker waits until mid-next week to call the election or opts for a longer campaign period, it will be delayed until at least 21 March, the day of the South Australian election. For Labor, there are political advantages to having this by-election clash with the SA election and tying up Liberal resources in Victoria.

Further reading:

Nightcliff by-election

Another by-election will shortly occur, this one in just a few weeks.

Voters in the Darwin seat of Nightcliff will be asked to choose their new representative in the legislative assembly on March 7, after the sudden resignation of the Greens' Kat McNamara for health reasons.

Here is my guide to the by-election:

McNamara is the first Green to ever hold a seat in the NT parliament, and they spectacularly defeated former Labor chief minister Natasha Fyles, who held the seat on a 24.5 per cent margin. Will the Greens be able to defend its margin of 36 votes?

Further reading:

The outlandish idea for Greens and Liberals to team up in the ACT that voters probably wouldn't have liked

A few weeks back, there was a fascinating thought experiment: could the Canberra Liberals and ACT Greens team up, form a coalition government, and turf the long-term Labor government out of office? The parties even discussed having their respective leaders take turns serving as Chief Minister.

If it sounds a bit outlandish, well, the parties involved eventually agreed and called the whole thing off.

Greens preferences in other elections around the country overwhelmingly favour Labor. Is there any reason to think it's any different in the ACT?

I dug into the ballot data from the 2024 election (the ACT electoral commission helpfully publishes the full preference flows of every single ballot) to prove that, no, Canberra is no different.

More than two thirds of Greens voters ranked Labor above the Liberal Party, suggesting that the minor party may have faced some electoral blowback had they gone ahead with a coalition:

Most Liberal voters exhausted their ballot before preferencing either the Greens or Labor, but of those that did number that far down, most preferred Labor.

Read my full story for ABC News here:

Election data confirms what we already know: Greens don’t like Liberals
Greens voters overwhelmingly preference Labor over the Liberal Party across the country — and a look at the data from the 2024 ACT election suggests there’s no reason to think that would be different in Canberra.
ABC NewsChief Elections and Data Analyst Casey Briggs

Further reading:

And it's just over a month until South Australia votes

There have been a few distractions in national politics this week, but we continue to rapidly speed toward next month's state election.

The writs will be issued on February 21 and polling day is March 21.

A Fox and Hedgehog poll published in the Adelaide Advertiser this week suggests in two-party preferred terms, the Liberals haven't really improved their position since the leadership change to Ashton Hurn.

On the first preference vote, the poll recorded a big drop in Liberal support and a big jump in One Nation support, mirroring the national trend.

As a reminder, here is my full guide to the SA election:

Ta ta for now!

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