The electoral commission has now finalised the distribution of preferences in Farrer, allowing it to formally declare One Nation's David Farley the winner.

That will happen in Albury on Thursday morning, with the writ to be returned to Speaker Milton Dick by Friday, allowing Farley to be sworn in and take his seat in parliament.

In the next few weeks we should get more detailed data from the AEC that tells us more about preference flows, including at each polling place. Provided things don't get away from me, I plan to do a more detailed analysis of that data when it arrives.

But for now, here's the electorate-wide picture. You can explore how each distribution flowed to the top four candidates in the seat in this table:

A few key points:

1. After the bottom eight candidates were excluded, Michelle Milthorpe was sitting at 32.4%, ten points behind One Nation at 42.4%. Milthorpe would've needed about 70% of the distribution from the two Coalition candidates to win from here. She got just shy of 40%.
2. That means One Nation picked up about 60% of the votes distributed when the Liberals and Nationals were excluded. That is not a very strong flow.
3. The data suggests that voters for minor right-wing parties tended to preference the other minor right-wing parties before their vote ended up one of the top four candidates. When the final of those parties got excluded (the SFF), One Nation was the biggest beneficiary.
4. On first preferences, The Greens ended up 11 votes behind Legalise Cannabis, and fell further behind as preferences were distributed. Votes flowing from both of those parties favoured Michelle Milthorpe.